Friday. Night. Lights.
This week in Friday college football action, the Utah Utes battle the Oregon State Beavers in late-week Pac-12 action.
This is, low-key, a monstrous game.
It’s a top-20 matchup that includes a top-10 team (Utah) on the road against a team that rarely loses at home (the Beavers have won 14 of their last 15 in Corvallis).
However, as a gambling man, I’m unsure which team will win this game outright.
But I’m fairly certain this will be a low-scoring game.
Utah vs. Oregon State prediction
(9 p.m. ET., Fox Sports)
All four of Utah’s games have stayed Under this season, primarily because of a dominant defense and a backup quarterback.
Cam Rising should return eventually, but who knows when.
And why push it? The Utes are 4-0 by running the ball and playing shutdown defense.
Even if Rising plays this Friday, the Utes likely won’t push it or try to overhaul the offense – again, Utah is 4-0 for a reason. I’d expect Utah to continue pounding the rock behind the three-headed “monster” of Jaylon Glover, Nate Johnson and Ja’Quinden Jackson.
I’d expect the same from Oregon State. The Beavers can move the football, but it’s all on the ground.
DJ Uiagelelei is far from fixed. After two great games against San Jose State and UC Davis, he’s regressed against San Diego State and Washington State. He completed less than 50% of his passes across the two games, with a Passing Success Rate of around 40%.
Behind Damien Martinez, Deshaun Fenwick and an experienced offensive line, the Beavers are averaging over 225 rushing yards per game at over six yards per carry. But they’re a one-dimensional attack running into a dominant front seven.
The Utes have the best front seven in the Pac-12. Nine starters returned from last year’s defense. Defensive end Jonah Elliss and linebacker Karene Reid are having big years already, at least by Pro Football Focus’s metrics.
The Utes rank top-15 nationally in points per game allowed (9.6), EPA per Rush allowed, and Rush Success Rate allowed. They’ve played ULCA, Baylor and Florida, so their numbers have come against legit Power Five competition.
Betting on College Football?
Ultimately, Utah’s defense should shut down Oregon State’s one-dimensional attack – especially behind a pristine gameplan from Kyle Whittingham – and Utah’s offense won’t push the ball downfield, Rising or no rising.
Add in a rainy weather report, and we should expect an ugly, rush-heavy game script that drains the clock and results in a low-scoring contest.
Utah vs. Oregon State pick
Under 44.5 (-110, BetMGM)
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